Question 30  income and capital returns

A share was bought for $20 (at t=0) and paid its annual dividend of $3 one year later (at t=1). Just after the dividend was paid, the share price was $16 (at t=1). What was the total return, capital return and income return? Calculate your answers as effective annual rates.

The choices are given in the same order: ## r_\text{total},r_\text{capital},r_\text{income} ##.

(a) -0.2, -0.35, 0.15.

(b) -0.05, -0.2, 0.15.

(c) -0.05, 0.15, -0.2.

(d) 0.05, 0.2, -0.15.

(e) 0.15, -0.05, -0.2.

Question 934  standard deviation, risk

Which of the following statements about an asset’s standard deviation of returns is NOT correct? All other things remaining equal, the higher the asset’s standard deviation of returns:

(a) The more risky the asset is from a financial analyst’s perspective.

(b) The higher the chance of a large loss.

(c) The higher the chance of a large gain.

(d) The more predictable the asset’s future price is.

(e) The higher the variance of returns.

Question 279  diversification

Do you think that the following statement is or ? “Buying a single company stock usually provides a safer return than a stock mutual fund.”

Question 81  risk, correlation, diversification

Stock A and B's returns have a correlation of 0.3. Which statement is NOT correct?

(a) If stock A's return increases, stock B's return is also expected to increase.

(b) If stock A's return decreases, stock B's return is also expected to decrease.

(c) If stock A and B were combined in a portfolio, there would be no diversification at all since they are positively correlated.

(d) Stock A and B's returns have positive covariance.

(e) a and b.

Question 284  covariance, correlation

The following table shows a sample of historical total returns of shares in two different companies A and B.

Stock Returns
Total effective annual returns
Year	##r_A##	##r_B##
2007	0.2	0.4
2008	0.04	-0.2
2009	-0.1	-0.3
2010	0.18	0.5

What is the historical sample covariance (##\hat{\sigma}_{A,B}##) and correlation (##\rho_{A,B}##) of stock A and B's total effective annual returns?

(a) 0.05696, 0.702247

(b) 0.05696, 0.238663

(c) 0.053333, 0.936329

(d) 0.040889, 0.930519

(e) 0.04, 0.930519

Question 82  portfolio return

Portfolio Details
Stock	Expected return	Standard deviation	Correlation	Dollars invested
A	0.1	0.4	0.5	60
B	0.2	0.6		140

What is the expected return of the above portfolio?

(a) 0.15

(b) 0.17

(c) 0.1908

(d) 0.2412

(e) 0.34

Question 111  portfolio risk, correlation

All things remaining equal, the variance of a portfolio of two positively-weighted stocks rises as:

(a) The correlation between the stocks' returns rise.

(b) The correlation between the stocks' returns decline.

(c) The portfolio standard deviation declines.

(d) Both stocks' individual variances decline.

(e) Both stocks' individual standard deviations decline.

Question 236  diversification, correlation, risk

Diversification in a portfolio of two assets works best when the correlation between their returns is:

(a) -1

(b) -0.5

(c) 0

(d) 0.5

(e) 1

Question 73  portfolio risk, standard deviation

Portfolio Details
Stock	Expected return	Standard deviation	Covariance ##(\sigma_{A,B})##	Beta	Dollars invested
A	0.2	0.4	0.12	0.5	40
B	0.3	0.8		1.5	80

What is the standard deviation (not variance) of the above portfolio? Note that the stocks' covariance is given, not correlation.

(a) 0.5497

(b) 0.5651

(c) 0.5963

(d) 0.6156

(e) 0.8165

Question 558  portfolio weights, portfolio return, short selling

An investor wants to make a portfolio of two stocks A and B with a target expected portfolio return of 16% pa.

• Stock A has an expected return of 8% pa.
• Stock B has an expected return of 12% pa.

What portfolio weights should the investor have in stocks A and B respectively?

(a) 200%, -100%

(b) 200%, 100%

(c) -100%, 200%

(d) 100%, 200%

(e) -100%, 100%

Question 560  standard deviation, variance, needs refinement

The standard deviation and variance of a stock's annual returns are calculated over a number of years. The units of the returns are percent per annum ##(\% pa)##.

What are the units of the standard deviation ##(\sigma)## and variance ##(\sigma^2)## of returns respectively?

(a) Percentage points per annum ##(\text{pp pa})## and percentage points per annum ##(\text{pp pa})##.

(b) Percentage points per annum ##(\text{pp pa})## and percentage points per annum all squared ##\left( (\text{pp pa})^2 \right)##.

(c) Percentage points per annum all squared ##\left( (\text{pp pa})^2 \right)## and percentage points per annum ##(\text{pp pa})##.

(d) Percentage points per annum all squared ##\left( (\text{pp pa})^2 \right)## and percentage points per annum all squared ##\left( (\text{pp pa})^2 \right)##.

(e) Percent per annum ##(\% pa)## and percent per annum ##(\% pa)##.

Hint: Visit Wikipedia to understand the difference between percentage points ##(\text{pp})## and percent ##(\%)##.

Question 931  confidence interval, normal distribution

A stock's returns are normally distributed with a mean of 10% pa and a standard deviation of 20 percentage points pa. What is the 90% confidence interval of returns over the next year? Note that the Z-statistic corresponding to a one-tail:

• 90% normal probability density function is 1.282.
• 95% normal probability density function is 1.645.
• 97.5% normal probability density function is 1.960.

The 90% confidence interval of annual returns is between:

(a) 30% and -10% pa.

(b) 32.9% and -32.9% pa.

(c) 35.64% and -15.64% pa.

(d) 42.9% and -22.9% pa.

(e) 49.2% and -29.2% pa.

Question 932  confidence interval, normal distribution

A stock's returns are normally distributed with a mean of 10% pa and a standard deviation of 20 percentage points pa. What is the 95% confidence interval of returns over the next year? Note that the Z-statistic corresponding to a one-tail:

• 90% normal probability density function is 1.282.
• 95% normal probability density function is 1.645.
• 97.5% normal probability density function is 1.960.

The 95% confidence interval of annual returns is between:

(a) 30% and -10% pa.

(b) 32.9% and -32.9% pa.

(c) 35.64% and -15.64% pa.

(d) 42.9% and -22.9% pa.

(e) 49.2% and -29.2% pa.

Question 933  confidence interval, normal distribution

A stock has an expected return of 10% pa and you're 90% sure that over the next year, the return will be between -15% and 35%. The stock's returns are normally distributed. Note that the Z-statistic corresponding to a one-tail:

• 90% normal probability density function is 1.282.
• 95% normal probability density function is 1.645.
• 97.5% normal probability density function is 1.960.

What is the stock’s standard deviation of returns in percentage points per annum (pp pa)?

(a) 6.08 pp pa

(b) 15.2 pp pa

(c) 21.28 pp pa

(d) 27.36 pp pa

(e) 41.13 pp pa

Question 282  expected and historical returns, income and capital returns

You're the boss of an investment bank's equities research team. Your five analysts are each trying to find the expected total return over the next year of shares in a mining company. The mining firm:

• Is regarded as a mature company since it's quite stable in size and was floated around 30 years ago. It is not a high-growth company;
• Share price is very sensitive to changes in the price of the market portfolio, economic growth, the exchange rate and commodities prices. Due to this, its standard deviation of total returns is much higher than that of the market index;
• Experienced tough times in the last 10 years due to unexpected falls in commodity prices.
• Shares are traded in an active liquid market.

Your team of analysts present their findings, and everyone has different views. While there's no definitive true answer, whose calculation of the expected total return is the most plausible? Assume that:

• The analysts' source data is correct and true, but their inferences might be wrong;
• All returns and yields are given as effective annual nominal rates.

(a) Alice says 5% pa since she calculated that this was the average total yield on government bonds over the last 10 years. She says that this is also the expected total yield implied by current prices on one year government bonds.

(b) Bob says 4% pa since he calculated that this was the average total return on the mining stock over the last 10 years.

(c) Cate says 3% pa since she calculated that this was the average growth rate of the share price over the last 10 years.

(d) Dave says 6% pa since he calculated that this was the average growth rate of the share market price index (not the accumulation index) over the last 10 years.

(e) Eve says 15% pa since she calculated that this was the discount rate implied by the dividend discount model using the current share price, forecast dividend in one year and a 3% growth rate in dividends thereafter, which is the expected long term inflation rate.

Question 559  variance, standard deviation, covariance, correlation

Which of the following statements about standard statistical mathematics notation is NOT correct?

(a) The arithmetic average of variable X is represented by ##\bar{X}##.

(b) The standard deviation of variable X is represented by ##\sigma_X##.

(c) The variance of variable X is represented by ##\sigma_X^2##.

(d) The covariance between variables X and Y is represented by ##\sigma_{X,Y}^2##.

(e) The correlation between variables X and Y is represented by ##\rho_{X,Y}##.

Question 562  covariance

What is the covariance of a variable X with itself?

The cov(X, X) or ##\sigma_{X,X}## equals:

(a) var(X) or ##\sigma_X^2##

(b) sd(X) or ##\sigma_X##

(c) 1

(d) 0

(e) Mathematically undefined

Question 563  correlation

What is the correlation of a variable X with itself?

The corr(X, X) or ##\rho_{X,X}## equals:

(a) var(X) or ##\sigma_X^2##

(b) sd(X) or ##\sigma_X##

(c) 1

(d) 0

(e) Mathematically undefined

Question 564  covariance

What is the covariance of a variable X with a constant C?

The cov(X, C) or ##\sigma_{X,C}## equals:

(a) var(X) or ##\sigma_X^2##

(b) sd(X) or ##\sigma_X##

(c) 1

(d) 0

(e) Mathematically undefined

Question 565  correlation

What is the correlation of a variable X with a constant C?

The corr(X, C) or ##\rho_{X,C}## equals:

(a) var(X) or ##\sigma_X^2##

(b) sd(X) or ##\sigma_X##

(c) 1

(d) 0

(e) Mathematically undefined